Jago, Hayden (2024) Peak flow estimation considering future climate scenarios for flood resilience modelling of the Warrego Highway at Laidley Creek. [USQ Project]
![[img]](https://sear.unisq.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text (Project – redacted)
JAGO_H_Dissertation_Redacted.pdf Download (27MB) |
Abstract
The Warrego Highway at Laidley Creek is susceptible to inundation following periods of high catchment rainfall, causing the closure of a high priority connection within the state-controlled road network. Increased surface temperatures attributed to climate change are projected to increase the intensity of extreme rainfall events. It is therefore anticipated the extent of flooding from Laidley Creek will increase and events will become more frequent.
This study investigated the impact of increased high intensity rainfall on peak discharge characteristics using a semi-distributed node-reach runoff routing model developed in the RORB software package. The model parameters were calibrated against eight historic rainfallrunoff events encompassing a variety of peak magnitudes and event durations. The LIMBBOM 2020 design rainfall envelope was factored to account for the projected median rises in surface temperature across two emissions scenarios at three projection horizons. Current and projected design event discharges were estimated using the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method and compared to the estimates obtained by independent techniques including flood frequency analysis and regionalised regression methods.
The simulated discharges closely corresponded to the independent estimates for the 2% and 1% AEP events, indicating the model was accurately calibrated for low frequency, high flow events. The model projected rises in the median design discharge of 51% and 49% for the 2% and 1% AEP events respectively by 2090. However, uncertainty in the results increased for the higher frequency events, with less alignment between the independent estimates and the simulated flows.
The hydrologic simulations completed in this project form the first component of a proposed site investigation into the current and future flood resilience of the Warrego Highway at Laidley Creek. An accompanying hydraulic investigation of the existing bridge crossing section is recommended to complete the investigation.
|
Statistics for this ePrint Item |
| Item Type: | USQ Project |
|---|---|
| Item Status: | Live Archive |
| Faculty/School / Institute/Centre: | Current – Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences - School of Engineering (1 Jan 2022 -) |
| Supervisors: | Chadalavada, Sreeni |
| Qualification: | Bachelor of Engineering (Honours) (Civil) |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Oct 2025 03:29 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Oct 2025 03:29 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | flood; rainfall; runoff |
| URI: | https://sear.unisq.edu.au/id/eprint/53053 |
Actions (login required)
 |
Archive Repository Staff Only |
